5. Pupil number projections

What is this data?
Every year, we produce the pupil number projections to work out how many children in the Royal Borough will need school places in the future.  We use this information to decide whether we need more school places or not.

When is this data for?
The latest published projections are the 2019 projections, completed in July 2019.

What is this data based on?
The pupil number projections are calculated by the Royal Borough using information about:

  •     The number of Live Births in the Royal Borough.
  •     The number of children resident in the Royal Borough, according to records from the NHS.
  •     The number of children in our schools.
  •     The number of new dwellings built recently/due to be built.
  •     The movement of children between neighbouring local authorities.

We use this information to calculate a mathematical relationship between the numbers of children in our schools and the number of children resident in the Royal Borough.  This then allows us to project likely future demand for school places.

Which schools are included in this data?
We don't produce pupil number projections for individual schools.  Instead, the Royal Borough is divided into four different planning areas, with a pupil number projection for each 'tier' of education as follows:

  •     Ascot primary schools.
  •     Ascot secondary schools.
  •     Datchet and Wraysbury primary schools.
  •     Datchet and Wraysbury secondary schools.
  •     Maidenhead primary schools.
  •     Maidenhead secondary schools.
  •     Windsor first schools.
  •     Windsor middle schools.
  •     Windsor upper schools.

The pupil number projections include all mainstream state schools (including academy and free schools) but exclude independent schools.

How often do we produce the pupil number projections?
Once a year, to send to the government in late July.

What years are available?
We project five years ahead for primary and first schools, and seven years ahead for secondary, middle and upper schools.

What do we do with the pupil number projections?
Every summer, the government requires us to complete a survey called the School Capacity (SCAP) return.  This includes a new set of pupil number projections and an accompanying commentary that explains the local context.

This information is used by the government to work out how much grant the Royal Borough will get to help provide new school places.

The Royal Borough uses the pupil number projections to decide whether new school places are needed

What are the limitations of this data?
Demand for school places is affected by a wide range of factors that change over time.  There is a margin of error in any calculation trying to take account of these factors, and so the pupil number forecasts need to be updated every year.

How can I download the data?
You can download the latest available SCAP documents.  These include:

  • The projected pupil numbers for all year groups.
  • The accompanying commentary.
  • A brief explanation of the projection methodology.